Margin of safety — our fair value, your assumptions

How far the price sits from a filed-numbers fair-value estimate, and what has to be true for that estimate to hold.

Data as of 6 Nov 2026Built 10 Nov 2026, 08:02 UTCNext refresh nightly, 03:30 PTSource Altamira KPI scorecard edition 9 Nov 2026 · Massive · FMP fundamentals (cache 2026-W45)

Altamira's in-house fair value is a plain 10-year discounted-cash-flow model with every input on the table. Pick a name, see the published inputs and outputs, then change any assumption — growth, fade, discount rate, horizon, cash flow, net debt, share count — and watch the value per share and the margin of safety move. Every figure below the published card is yours, not ours.

Ticker447 names seeded · link to a name with #TICKER

Published · Altamira published model output (R7: not a forecast)

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The blend is Morningstar when supplied, else the median of the two models; the edition and price date are in the line under the title.

Your assumptions

Stage-1 growth % per yearStage-1 years years at that growthTerminal growth % per year, after the fadeDiscount rate % per yearHorizon years before the terminal valueTTM free cash flow $BNet debt $B (negative = net cash)Diluted shares millions

Result under your assumptions

Value per share under your assumptions

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Margin of safety vs price under your assumptions

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PV of stage cash flows under your assumptions

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PV of terminal value under your assumptions

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Equity value under your assumptions

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Stage 1 grows free cash flow at your rate for the stage-1 years, then the growth rate fades in a straight line to terminal growth by the horizon; each year is discounted at your rate; the terminal value is cash flow × (1 + terminal growth) / (discount rate − terminal growth), discounted from the horizon; equity = present values − net debt; per share = equity / diluted shares.

Sensitivity under your assumptions — margin of safety by discount rate × stage-1 growth

Rows: discount rate 7–11%. Columns: your stage-1 growth −6, −3, 0, +3, +6 percentage points; every other input as set above. Green = value per share above the price, red = below; hover a cell for the value per share.

Source: Altamira KPI scorecard, edition 9 Nov 2026 (generated 9 Nov 2026, 14:40 UTC; prices Massive close of 6 Nov 2026; fundamentals FMP, cache 2026-W45 fetched 7 Nov 2026, 15:20 UTC). Seeds: 447 USD reporters with positive TTM free cash flow and a diluted share count; stage-1 growth = min(5-year FCF-per-share CAGR, 5-year revenue CAGR) clamped to 0–20%; the page's arithmetic reproduces the published in-house value within 1% for every seeded name (checked 460, max seeded delta 0.972%).

Method

The published in-house value is a two-stage DCF on trailing-twelve-month free cash flow: stage-1 growth for the stage-1 years, a linear fade to terminal growth by the horizon, a Gordon terminal value, less net debt, per diluted share. Margin of safety = (fair value − price) / fair value, so +20% means the price sits 20% below the model's value. The FMP DCF is FMP's own model, shown as a second opinion; Morningstar fair values are operator-supplied where present. Every figure outside the Published card is computed in your browser from the inputs you set and is labelled as yours; nothing here forecasts a price.

A calculator over published model inputs, not a recommendation; no positions are expressed or implied, and nothing from any portfolio is an input. Research for information only — not investment advice; see Disclosures.