Regime & flows — where the market is, and where the money went
Where the market regime stands today: the deployment gate, the Markov state and the day's rotation read.
Data as of 12 Nov 2026Built 12 Nov 2026, 21:40 UTCNext refresh weekdays after the closeSource macro gate · Markov regime · money-flow feed (FMP, CBOE, Massive)
Where the market is, in three descriptive layers, each from the file that produced it. The deployment gateA six-signal macro reading that sits at FULL, REDUCED or STAND DOWN. It describes conditions; what anyone does with it is their own decision. scores six market stress signals as of 12 Nov 2026. The Markov stateA regime label — Bull, Sideways or Bear — assigned day by day by a hidden-state model of the index's returns, shown with the model's one-day transition probabilities and its long-run mix. Descriptive; never a price forecast, and never projected beyond seven days. says where each index ETF sits on its own sample (last bar SPY 9 Nov 2026, QQQ 9 Nov 2026). Today's read summarises the 12 Nov 2026 session; the full rotation map is on /money-flow/. Everything here is a reading of what has already happened or what a stated model computes from it; nothing is a forecast or a price target.
Deployment gate
| Signal | Score | Weight | Reading | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX level | 49 | 15% | VIX 17.49 · 51st pct 1y | 11 Nov 2026 |
| VIX term structure | 100 | 20% | VIX/VIX3M contango +10.0% (17.49 / 19.24) | 11 Nov 2026 |
| S&P 500 breadth (200-day) | 85 | 25% | 64% of S&P 500 above 200-day (500 names) | 12 Nov 2026 |
| Credit (HYG / IEF) | 68 | 15% | HYG/IEF 0.850 · z +0.73 (2y) | 12 Nov 2026 |
| Equity put / call | 52 | 10% | equity P/C 0.65 vs 20d 0.66 | 4 Oct 2019 STALE |
| Factor crowding (MTUM vs VTV) | 58 | 15% | MTUM–VTV 60d corr 0.42 · MTUM −11.2% / VTV +1.6% 60d | 11 Nov 2026 |
Scale: each signal scores 0–100, higher = more supportive of putting capital to work; the composite is the weighted sum (weights from config/macro_gate.yaml, shown above). Zones are read off the composite. A STALE pill means the upstream feed has not updated — the figure is shown as the file carries it, not as current.
Composite score, last 67 run days (23 Jul 2026 → 12 Nov 2026) — point colour = that day's zone
Source: scripts/macro_gate → macro_gate_2026-11-12.json, computed 12 Nov 2026, 14:36 UTC; signal feeds FMP / CBOE as each row states. Page pulled 12 Nov 2026, 21:40 UTC.
Market regime (Markov)
A three-state Markov chain (Bear / Sideways / Bull) fitted on each index ETF's own rolling returns. What it gives is model output: the state today, the model's probability for each state tomorrow (one row of the transition matrix), how sticky each state has been, and the long-run share of time in each state. No multi-day path is computed.
SPY · sample 9 Nov 2016 → 9 Nov 2026 · 2513 rows
Next-day model probabilities
Persistence (stay-in-state) · stationary mix
| State | Persistence | Stationary |
|---|---|---|
| Bear | 76.2% | 8.1% |
| Sideways | 93.2% | 79.2% |
| Bull | 72.8% | 12.7% |
Transition matrix (row = from, column = to)
| From \ To | Bear | Sideways | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 76.2% | 23.8% | 0.0% |
| Sideways | 2.4% | 93.2% | 4.4% |
| Bull | 0.0% | 27.2% | 72.8% |
Params: window 20, threshold 0.05.
QQQ · sample 9 Nov 2016 → 9 Nov 2026 · 2513 rows
Next-day model probabilities
Persistence (stay-in-state) · stationary mix
| State | Persistence | Stationary |
|---|---|---|
| Bear | 79.8% | 11.7% |
| Sideways | 88.9% | 63.5% |
| Bull | 81.1% | 24.8% |
Transition matrix (row = from, column = to)
| From \ To | Bear | Sideways | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 79.8% | 20.2% | 0.0% |
| Sideways | 3.7% | 88.9% | 7.4% |
| Bull | 0.0% | 18.9% | 81.1% |
Params: window 20, threshold 0.05.
Model probability, not a price prediction. STANDING RULE R7 enforced: n-step forecasts capped at 7 days. Framework: Roan (@RohOnChain); vendored from github.com/jackson-video-resources/markov-hedge-fund-method @ 2026-05-19.
Source: outputs/markov_regime/{SPY,QQQ}.json (scripts/markov_regime, daily closes via FMP); as-of per card. Page pulled 12 Nov 2026, 21:40 UTC.
Today's read
The read is the sign of the pressure scoreHow unusual the move was for that asset: the return divided by its own 60-day volatility, scaled by how much dollar volume it drew against its 20-day average (clamped 0.5–2×). Positive = bought, negative = sold. across the proxies; N50The fewest names, taken in the index's direction, that account for half of its net move. A small N50 means a few large names carried the index. is how many names explain half of the index move and median captureWhat the typical stock got of the index move, as a share of it. Below half means a handful of large names did the lifting. is what the typical stock got of it (418% this session).
Full rotation map → /money-flow/ — cross-asset and sector pressure, relative rotation, depth vs breadth, style spreads and the options tape, daily and for the week.
Source: scripts/signal_feeds/money_flow.py → money-flow-2026-11-12.json; fetched 12 Nov 2026, 21:20 UTC. Page pulled 12 Nov 2026, 21:40 UTC.
Descriptive, not predictive: states, scores and model probabilities describe the data as of the dates shown and are not forecasts. Altamira publishes no positions on this page. Sources: FMP (daily closes and quotes), CBOE (VIX, equity put/call), Massive (options snapshots), SEC-listed S&P 500 constituents; computations by the Altamira workspace scripts named under each block. Research for information only — not investment advice; see Disclosures.