Verdict ledger — every public call, on the record
What has Altamira said in public about a company, when, and how has that call fared against the S&P 500 since?
Data as of 11 Nov 2026Built 12 Nov 2026, 05:15 UTCNext refresh nightly, 03:30 PTSource Altamira belief ledger · site coverage log · /earnings/ verdict store · FMP daily closes
Every call Altamira has made in public, on the record: when it was made, what was said, the reference figure at publication, and how the name has done against the S&P 500 since. A call is a trade call, a thesis status, a bear-case severity, or the thesis verdictWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. published after a print — in a recap, or in the verdict column of the earnings page (shown with the print's gradeHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only.). A verdict stays open until the company's next print replaces it; resolved calls stay on the record and nothing is edited after the fact. The clock starts the day a call reached the site: verdicts carried onto the record on 9 Nov 2026 for earlier prints are measured from that day, not from the print.
Public calls32measured against SPY
Resolved0graded and closed
Open32still running
Hit rate48%13 of 27 judged calls went the right way
Notes not yet published2written; not on the record until published
The ledger
| Date | Ticker | Kind | Call | Figure at publication | Name since | SPY since | Excess | Direction | Status | Published note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | AAPL | Thesis verdict (recap) | IntactWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-11-02 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 350.69 · BHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | +1.4% | +0.9% | +0.5% | right way | Open until next print | Earnings page — AAPL print of 2026-11-02 |
| 2026-11-09 | ABBV | Thesis verdict (recap) | StrengthenedWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-30 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 293.30 · BHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | +0.6% | +0.9% | −0.4% | wrong way | Open until next print | Earnings page — ABBV print of 2026-10-30 |
| 2026-11-09 | AMZN | Thesis verdict (recap) | StrainedWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-29 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 266.93 · FHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | −0.3% | +0.9% | −1.2% | — | Open until next print | Earnings page — AMZN print of 2026-10-29 |
| 2026-11-09 | ANET | Thesis verdict (recap) | IntactWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-11-03 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 186.17 · AHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | +5.6% | +0.9% | +4.7% | right way | Open until next print | Earnings page — ANET print of 2026-11-03 |
| 2026-11-09 | ASML | Thesis verdict (recap) | IntactWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-14 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 1,513.25 · CHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | +1.4% | +0.9% | +0.5% | right way | Open until next print | Earnings page — ASML print of 2026-10-14 |
| 2026-11-09 | CDNS | Thesis verdict (recap) | StrengthenedWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-26 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 336.53 · BHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | −2.2% | +0.9% | −3.1% | wrong way | Open until next print | Cadence: Beat, Raise, Record Backlog — Q3 2026 |
| 2026-11-09 | FICO | Thesis verdict (recap) | IntactWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-11-04 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 723.76 · BHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | +0.7% | +0.9% | −0.2% | wrong way | Open until next print | FICO: The Beat Was Clean — the Margin Was Not |
| 2026-11-09 | GD | Thesis verdict (recap) | IntactWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-30 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 362.07 · AHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | +1.4% | +0.9% | +0.5% | right way | Open until next print | Earnings page — GD print of 2026-10-30 |
| 2026-11-09 | GEV | Thesis verdict (recap) | StrengthenedWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-28 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 829.34 · AHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | −2.5% | +0.9% | −3.5% | wrong way | Open until next print | GE Vernova: Orders Doubled the Backlog Story — Now Conversion Has to Cash It |
| 2026-11-09 | GOOGL | Thesis verdict (recap) | StrainedWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-28 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 288.15 · FHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | +1.8% | +0.9% | +0.9% | — | Open until next print | Alphabet: The Engine Has Never Run Hotter — or Cost More — Q3 2026 |
| 2026-11-09 | JPM | Thesis verdict (recap) | IntactWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-13 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 342.08 · FHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | +0.4% | +0.9% | −0.6% | wrong way | Open until next print | Earnings page — JPM print of 2026-10-13 |
| 2026-11-09 | KLAC | Thesis verdict (recap) | IntactWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-28 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 151.38 · AHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | +6.4% | +0.9% | +5.4% | right way | Open until next print | KLA: The Moat Printed — the Proof Didn't |
| 2026-11-09 | KMI | Thesis verdict (recap) | IntactWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-21 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 30.57 · AHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | +3.3% | +0.9% | +2.4% | right way | Open until next print | Earnings page — KMI print of 2026-10-21 |
| 2026-11-09 | LLY | Thesis verdict (recap) | StrengthenedWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-29 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 1,411.95 · AHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | +1.8% | +0.9% | +0.9% | right way | Open until next print | Earnings page — LLY print of 2026-10-29 |
| 2026-11-09 | LRCX | Thesis verdict (recap) | IntactWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-21 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 221.31 · BHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | +6.6% | +0.9% | +5.6% | right way | Open until next print | Earnings page — LRCX print of 2026-10-21 |
| 2026-11-09 | MA | Thesis verdict (recap) | IntactWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-29 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 655.81 · BHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | +0.8% | +0.9% | −0.2% | wrong way | Open until next print | Earnings page — MA print of 2026-10-29 |
| 2026-11-09 | MELI | Thesis verdict (recap) | IntactWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-11-04 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 1,532.68 · FHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | −1.3% | +0.9% | −2.3% | wrong way | Open until next print | Earnings page — MELI print of 2026-11-04 |
| 2026-11-09 | META | Thesis verdict (recap) | IntactWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-21 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 641.37 · BHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | −2.0% | +0.9% | −2.9% | wrong way | Open until next print | Earnings page — META print of 2026-10-21 |
| 2026-11-09 | MRK | Thesis verdict (recap) | IntactWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-29 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 148.76 · AHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | −1.1% | +0.9% | −2.0% | wrong way | Open until next print | Earnings page — MRK print of 2026-10-29 |
| 2026-11-09 | MSCI | Thesis verdict (recap) | IntactWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-20 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 646.45 · BHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | +2.3% | +0.9% | +1.4% | right way | Open until next print | Earnings page — MSCI print of 2026-10-20 |
| 2026-11-09 | MSFT | Thesis verdict (recap) | IntactWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-28 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 545.18 · BHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | −4.4% | +0.9% | −5.4% | wrong way | Open until next print | Microsoft: Azure Finally Has a Price Tag — $33 Billion, and Accelerating |
| 2026-11-09 | NFLX | Thesis verdict (recap) | IntactWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-20 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 63.95 · BHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | +0.9% | +0.9% | −0.0% | wrong way | Open until next print | Netflix: YouTube Pulls Away — Q3 FY26 |
| 2026-11-09 | PLTR | Thesis verdict (recap) | StrengthenedWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-11-02 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 169.20 · AHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | +1.9% | +0.9% | +0.9% | right way | Open until next print | Earnings page — PLTR print of 2026-11-02 |
| 2026-11-09 | PWR | Thesis verdict (recap) | StrengthenedWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-29 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 591.48 · AHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | +2.8% | +0.9% | +1.8% | right way | Open until next print | Earnings page — PWR print of 2026-10-29 |
| 2026-11-09 | SPCX | Thesis verdict (recap) | IntactWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-20 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 142.07 · AHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | −1.6% | +0.9% | −2.6% | wrong way | Open until next print | Earnings page — SPCX print of 2026-10-20 |
| 2026-11-09 | SWKS | Thesis verdict (recap) | StrainedWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-11-03 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 82.83 · BHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | +5.8% | +0.9% | +4.9% | — | Open until next print | Earnings page — SWKS print of 2026-11-03 |
| 2026-11-09 | TSLA | Thesis verdict (recap) | StrainedWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-21 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 378.05 · BHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | +3.4% | +0.9% | +2.4% | — | Open until next print | Earnings page — TSLA print of 2026-10-21 |
| 2026-11-09 | TSM | Thesis verdict (recap) | IntactWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-15 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 388.62 · BHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | +6.4% | +0.9% | +5.4% | right way | Open until next print | Earnings page — TSM print of 2026-10-15 |
| 2026-11-09 | V | Thesis verdict (recap) | IntactWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-27 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 422.16 · BHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | +0.8% | +0.9% | −0.1% | wrong way | Open until next print | Visa: A Clean Beat the Market Wouldn't Pay For |
| 2026-11-09 | VICI | Thesis verdict (recap) | IntactWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-28 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 25.16 · CHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | −0.9% | +0.9% | −1.8% | wrong way | Open until next print | VICI Properties: The EPS Miss Is the Wrong Number — and the Right One Still Hasn't Posted |
| 2026-11-09 | VRT | Thesis verdict (recap) | StrengthenedWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-28 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 200.47 · AHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | +3.0% | +0.9% | +2.1% | right way | Open until next print | Vertiv: Orders Doubled, Guidance Raised — Now the Multiple Has to Earn It |
| 2026-11-09 | WM | Thesis verdict (recap) | StrainedWhat the print did to the case for the business: Strengthened, Intact, Strained or Broken. Backward-looking; it is not a rating of the stock. | print 2026-10-27 · recorded 2026-11-09 · close 236.61 · CHow the print compared with consensus: A both beat by ≥ 2% · B both beat · C mixed or in line · D one clear miss · F both miss or any ≤ −3%. REITs are graded on revenue only. | +1.6% | +0.9% | +0.6% | — | Open until next print | Waste Management: A Small Miss, a Big Drop — Q3 2026 |
Source: Altamira belief ledger, site coverage log and the site's thesis-verdict store (the /earnings/ verdict column, kept as an append-only history since 2026-11-11), matched to the site's published posts at build time. Returns are realised close-to-close moves from the first close on or after publication to the latest close (or the resolution date), FMP daily closes, derived figures only. Excess = name − SPY over the same window. Trade calls resolve after 90 days or when superseded; recap verdicts stay open until the next print. Backward-looking only — nothing here is a forecast.
Season scorecard
| Season | Calls | Resolved | Right way | Hit rate | Avg excess vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | 32 | 0 | 13/27 | 48% | +0.5% |
Source: Same ledger, grouped by the calendar quarter of publication. A call counts as the right way when a constructive call (GO, Intact, Strengthened) beat the index or a cautious call (NO-GO, At-risk, Broken, HIGH severity) trailed it.
Research for information only — not investment advice; see Disclosures.