Previews two sessions before a print and recaps the morning after, each graded on the record: the bar, the print, the counterweight, the verdict.
Also: the earnings schedule · the verdict ledger · Digests · Data notes
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Applied Materials beat on both lines for the ninth straight graded quarter — adjusted EPS of 4.16 against a 4.06 estimate, revenue of $10.41B against a $10.30B bar. Underneath, free cash flow was flat in dollars year over year even as revenue grew 53.07%, and the free-cash-flow margin fell 1,042 bas
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Intuitive Surgical beat on both lines for an eighth straight quarter and grew revenue 21.70% — then posted an operating margin of 19.44%, down 1,417 basis points from the quarter before. The stock fell 2.26% on the print, a third of its usual move, and has since recovered all of it and more.
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Meta Platforms beat on both lines on October 21 — EPS 7.40 vs 6.54 expected (+13.15%), revenue $64.60B (+1.99% vs estimate, +26.07% YoY) — then posted a 20.10% operating margin, down 1,997 basis points year over year, and its first negative free cash flow quarter in this nine-quarter series, -$1,156
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Revenue $24,397M, +8.03% vs estimate and +38.61% YoY · non-GAAP EPS $7.48 vs $5.68 (+31.69%) · guidance raised to $91–92B of revenue and $35–36 of EPS — and the close was +6.57% to $1,373
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The miss itself was small: EPS $1.89 vs $1.97 and revenue a hair under the estimate. The $34.8 billion free-cash-flow hole, with capex at 182% of operating cash flow, is the story.
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Consensus wants $10.30B of revenue and EPS of 4.06 from Applied Materials on Thursday — a 51.47% jump on last year's quarter — from a stock that has lost 34.71% in a month. Eight straight beats say the company usually clears the bar; the tape says the bar is no longer the question.
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Fair Isaac beat on both lines and grew revenue 27.40% — then printed its lowest operating margin in nine quarters, down 1,322 bp from the quarter before. The stock, already 57.93% below a year ago, barely moved. This recap reads the quarter the market read: the margin, not the beat.
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Every earnings season produces one print that punishes investors for reading the headline number. VICI's third quarter is that print.
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Some earnings prints answer the question investors brought into the quarter. GE Vernova's third quarter changed the question.
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KLA printed the kind of quarter that is supposed to settle an argument. Revenue accelerated to $4,136.0M, up 28.9% year over year after a long run of single-digit sequential steps, gross margin widened to 61.85%, and operating margin reached 45.01%.
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Vertiv opened its call with a rebuttal.
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Microsoft did the thing the market had stopped expecting: it made Azure bigger and faster at the same time. For the first time, Azure has a dollar figure — $33,170M in the quarter, up 48.2% year over year, after +42% in the June quarter on the restated basis.